Can Former President Trump 'Make Felonies Great Again'? || Peter Zeihan
(short video, 4+ minutes)
"Independents have decided every presidential election since the early 1960s and they are not going to vote for somebody who now has 34 felonies under his belt. As far as I'm concerned this verdict has decided the election"
43% identified as independents in 2023, tying 2014 record
Political independents continue to constitute the largest political bloc in the U.S., with an average of 43% of U.S. adults identifying this way in 2023, tying the record high from 2014. Independent identification has been 40% or higher each year since 2011, except for the 2016 (39%) and 2020 (39%) presidential election years. Equal 27% shares of U.S. adults identify as Republicans and Democrats, with the Democratic figure marking a new low for that party in Gallup’s trend.
As 2024 begins, the parties are closely matched based on political party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than they have been in any recent election year. This is based on the new low percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats, as well as the Republican advantage in leaned party identification. In the past four presidential election years, Democrats had at least a five-point advantage in leaned party identification. They won the popular vote each of those years, though Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 election based on the Electoral College vote.
This presidential election year is likely to see a drop in the percentage of political independents, as has occurred in six of the past seven presidential election years (all but 2012), amid intense focus on national politics and the two major parties. Still, even with a slight election-year drop -- which has ranged from two to five points -- independents will remain the largest, and arguably most persuadable, group of voters. In what is expected to be a close election contest, it is critical for each party, but especially Democrats, to nominate a candidate who can appeal to independent voters.
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May 30, Newsweek:
Donald Trump Crushes Joe Biden Among Independents In New Poll Published May 30, 2024
onald Trump holds a substantial lead over Joe Biden among independent voters ahead of the presidential election in November, according to a new poll.
The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National survey of 1,122 registered voters nationwide found that Trump secured 54 percent of the vote among independent voters compared to 42 percent for Biden in a head-to-head race, with four percent undecided. The poll was conducted between May 21-23 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
The findings showed Trump with even higher support among independent male voters at 56 percent compared to Biden's 39 percent, with five percent undecided. This contrasts with a much closer race among independent women voters, where Trump only led by 50 percent to Biden's 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
The survey showed that Trump held an even more substantial lead over Biden among independents in a five-way race that included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Despite the findings among independents, the data shows that the race remains very tight between Biden and Trump overall. In a head-to-head race, Biden leads among registered voters on 50 percent to Trump's 48 percent, with two percent undecided. The findings remain unchanged from a poll conducted in early May.
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^ The Trump verdict came one day after this on May 31
We will have to wait for some new polling to see if this verdict has had significant effect on independent voters polled. If Trump loses a 2nd time he will be super duper mad. But I don't think this verdict will have that much influence
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